Wimbledon 2011 Midpoint Notes

16:53 Sun 26 Jun 2011
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On the men’s side, it hasn’t been an eventful tournament so far, with the Big Four all through to the second week and looking like they’ll meet in the semis. The only other major threat is Juan Martin del Potro, who has looked strong, and who plays Nadal in the fourth round.

On the women’s side, both Williams sisters are doing well, and the rest of the field is relatively open. At this point it’s hard to see credible challengers to Serena Williams.

Nadal has looked extremely impressive, but with del Potro in his way probably has the toughest route to the semifinals. Murray could struggle against Gasquet and against likely quarterfinal opponent Feliciano Lopez, and there’s always the question of whether the pressure will get to him, but he should make it through to face (presumably) Nadal in the semifinals.

Standing between Federer and another Grand Slam semifinal are Mikhail Youzhny and either Ferrer or Tsonga, and it’s hard to see any of them troubling him. He hasn’t dropped a set so far, and I suspect all of those men would have trouble taking one from him on grass.

Novak Djokovic looks like he’s shaken off any ill effects from his lone loss (to Federer) this year, and has dropped just one set so far. In his path to the semifinals is just one seeded player, Michael Llodra, and two unseeded players, Malisse and Tomic, the latter of whom is the first 18-year-old male to reach Wimbledon’s second week since Becker did so—but for any of them to beat Djokovic would be a huge upset, and Djokovic probably has the easiest path to a semifinal berth—and a meeting with Federer, which could be a fantastic match.

Both French Open women’s finalists have departed Wimbledon, although both fought hard before succumbing in extended third sets. While neither was favored on grass, I think their absence makes a Williams victory more likely. Of the remaining women, I think that Wozniacki, Sharapova, Lisicki, and Azarenka are the most likely challengers to Serena, but wouldn’t bet on any of them to win the title.

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